Update plus capitulation in tobacco

Looking first at the 5G stocks, Verizon closed Friday 60.21 – within a few cents of the years high. Ceragon closed at 4.24 but has been volatile – hitting 4.95 a few days ago. At these prices both stocks have been re-rated against the backdrop of a big drop in technology stocks, so there are more interesting ideas elsewhere at present.
Roku gave a trading opportunity after remaining above 70 for a few days in October, then falling back to mid to low 40s – 44.58 now. Think it is worth following the Beth Kindig idea of 100 within 2 years, so if the stock suddenly closes the gap and goes right the way back up a trade might be considered. They are shipping the speakers now, so numbers in this current big quarter will be very difficult to predict.
On to tobaccos – Imperial IMB slumped earlier in the year from a high of 3193 to 2298, but have since partly recovered to 2638. BAT slumped later from 5108 to 2677 and are now 2707.
Recently the FDA has seemingly selected menthol cigarettes and vaping as targets. However there is no published scientific research proving that menthol are more addictive – a lot of girls used to smoke them 50 years ago, don’t suppose much has changed. Vaping products are often sold online, so as long as the buyer has access to a credit card it is impossible to verify age. Both companies have vaping products and brands, but I guess they are not as vulnerable as Juul which is 100% vaping.It seems incongruous that the FDA are stepping up enforcement against tobacco and vaping products at the same time that marijuana is becoming available for recreational use in many US states, in addition to Canada and Uruguay. As regards teenage usage, this is impossible to stop as always.
So I am thinking that the BAT price fall may have been overdone due to capitulation by a few large holders. Remember that if an equity forms only a small percentage – less than 1 – of a huge
portfolio and a decision is made to sell, nobody especially worries about the prices achieved – the main concern is execution i.e. no of shares sold per day, average price achieved, bids on the dark platforms, how many left to sell, should they all go at a low price to finish the trade.

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